According to Thai style political science, the Prime Minister is the most powerful person in the executive branch - so long as he does not try to use his power against the commander of the country's two hundred thousand strong military.
Former PM Suchinda Kraprayoon made a remark 19 years ago when he was chief of the army. He said, "The army commander's seat is much more secure and stronger than that of the Prime Minister's."
Although Gen Suchinda himself tasted the truth of his own words when he was forced to vacate the powerful but vulnerable PM's seat after the 1992 May uprising, his belief regarding the formidable strength of the army chief's position has stayed on in the minds of present-day soldiers.
No matter what they say about the need to push the military back to their barracks and act as professional soldiers, Thai PMs invariably have to "be nice" to the army chief. Being seen as playing on the same team is a must. Creating any fear or doubt - real or perceived - that a change in the position of the army commander may be imminent is a no-no. Considering such a background, it is probably no surprise that the current army commander, Gen Anupong Paojinda, has survived four Prime Ministers, from Gen Surayud Chulanont down to Abhisit Vejjajiva. His almost supernatural ability to hold on to the army chief's position amid the fluctuating political atmosphere is an amazing feat in this country which is full of amazing things.
If one looks closely at Gen Anupong's remarkable tenacity, however, one will find that his seat is secure because he has been in positions of power for a long time. During the tenure of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, Gen Anupong was made commander of the First Division - known as the main force for coup-making - then the First Army Region. Apparently, Thaksin placed his trust in Gen Anupong who, after all, was his classmate at the Armed Forces Preparatory School. And obviously, Gen Anupong was among those who led the force against the ex-premier.
After he rose to the top job, Gen Anupong consolidated his control of the armed forces by making more than 20 transfers of commanding officers at the battalion and regiment levels and six more at the level of general.
As for the so-called "Big Five" at the top echelon of the army (including the army chief), Gen Anupong handpicked each of his four top lieutenants from Classes 10, 11 and 12.
First on the list is Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha (Class 12), the deputy army chief and No.1 candidate to succeed Gen Anupong. But then, the army chief also pushed his Class 10 mate, Gen Piroon Paewpolsong, to the position of chief-of-staff. Since Gen Piroon can serve until 2011, he is entitled to be promoted to the top position.
Gen Piroon is viewed as a neutral candidate who would be acceptable to both the Anupong or Thaksin side. He could get a windfall if there is a change in politics and the opposition gets to form the government. Besides, Gen Piroon hails from the cavalry, a unit that has received personal support from Privy Council president Gen Prem Tinsulanonda. Even though Gen Prem would like to see his "youngest son" Gen Prayuth as the army commander, he probably wouldn't mind having a cavalry man as one, either. After all, Gen Prem is the only army chief to have come from the unit. It is no surprise the parallel candidacy has caused some awkwardness between Gen Prayuth and Gen Piroon.
Yet another candidate - in case something unexpected should happen - is Gen Wit Devahasdin na Ayutthaya. Gen Wit is now deputy army commander. He is from Class 11 and due to retire in 2011. He is a favourite subordinate of Defence Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and a childhood friend of Gen Anupong. More importantly, Gen Wit is close to many "Shinawatra" soldiers, including former army chief Chaiyasit Shinawatra. He is also a brother-in-law of Gen Pornchai Kranlert, former deputy army chief who was once slotted as a possible army chief during the time of Thaksin. In case of political problems, Gen Wit could be an unaligned choice.
Although another deputy army chief, Gen Theerawat Boonyapradup, is also a friend of Gen Anupong's from Class 10 who will serve until 2011, he is from the ordnance department. According to tradition, he is out of line to become the army commander.
Right now, the four candidates realise that Gen Prayuth is ahead of them. Although they are technically in competition for the only seat of power, they manage to work together in harmony. They are indeed more like friends than rivals.
Gen Anupong holds a briefing session with his "Big Four" every morning on the sixth floor of the army headquarters. They have lunch together at least once a week at their office. At the end of every month they also get together.
For now, Gen Anupong has already started counting down to his retirement, which is due this Sept 30. A crucial point will come when the army chief leaves for a trip to New York, Washington DC and Georgia from Feb 5th to 14th. Gen Prayuth, who will be his stand-in, will have to handle the continuing red-shirt movement and whatever the protesters will pile on.
While nobody knows for sure who the next army commander will be, one thing that is certain is that the new top soldier will have to be braver and more committed than Gen Anupong, not in clinging to the seat of power but in bringing more professionalism to the army, as he will be in for a really tough time.
Source - The Bangkok Post